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Friday Morning, July 30

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Swing Man Market Recap and Stock Picks:

Thursday July 29th Market Recap

The short term trend is now down with the market making lower lows and lower highs. Tomorrow, the government reports GDP so this may produce a reaction. Bigger picture the SPX has support at the 50 day MA (1081) with resistance overhead at the 200 day MA (1112). We have had several nice setups on the watchlist (also mentioned in the newsletters) so please make note of these ahead of time. Have a great evening.

Presented By Steve Nelson and Matthew Frailey

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cnbc fast money review

1. WILL AUGUST BRING MARKET GAINS SIMILAR TO JULY?

On Friday, the market closed out its best month in a year with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P all posting 7% gains for the month.

Although that seems bullish, investors are concerned that the gains may not hold considering Wall Street is still struggling with conflicting messages; strong earnings versus lackluster economic news.

The angst has left stocks range bound over the past 10 days and generated more technical trading. The S&P 500 has been finding support around 1,100 while struggling to move above its 200-day moving average around 1,115.

A sustained move above that level would be bullish for investors. However, "We have failed up here essentially about three times," explains Nick Kalivas of MF Global in a Retuers interview, and typically that signals a triple top – a bearish sign.

”So technically people are using that as something to lean on, on the short side,” Kaliva adds. And of perhaps greater concern "on the surface earnings numbers have been pretty strong, but underneath there was a loss of momentum," he says.

How should you position now?

Instant Insights with the Fast Money traders

I expect the S&P to remain range bound between 1081 to 1113, says Steve Grasso. Personally, I think the market goes lower into year-end.

When this market looks bad it looks like it’s going to crater and when it looks good it looks like it’s about to break out, adds Guy Adami. I think we’re out the precipice of something and my bias is also lower.

The question for me as a trader is whether we're in a binary market or if we're moving into a different environment. I expect to see a rotation out of junk and into quality, says Joe Terranova. I'd expect money to go into quality names with big balance sheets that haven’t worked such as Microsoft.

If we see the market start to stabilize it makes sense to me that money will rotate into blue chips, echoes Karen Finerman. But I don't think we're out of the binary world yet. Lately this has been a one-decision market.

If you're looking to establish positions it's important to remember the companies that are performing best are those with international exposure, reminds Patty Edwards.

2. RIMM ON A ROLL?

RIM was a big winner Friday due to reports that the Blackberry maker is set to unveil a long-awaited touch-screen handset designed to battle with Apple's popular iPhone at an event scheduled for August 3rd.

Called the Slider 9800, reports say the handset will be carried exclusively by AT&T spacer and should go on sale in time for the holiday season and perhaps in time for back-to-school, the report said.

What’s the trade?

My clients are selling into the strength, says Steve Grasso, but that’s because the stock usually ramps up into a gadget launch.

The valuation in RIM look relatively cheap to me, says Joe Terranova. I'm a buyer; I think it should be closer to $65.

I agree with Joe, says Patty Edwards, and RIM gadgets outsell the iPhone at a ratio of almost 3:1.

I wanted to learn about the new device and found interesting info about it on Blackberrycool.com, says Karen Finerman. From what I can tell, this could be a turnaround story. The new device seems to be pretty impressive.

3. HAS GOLDMAN FOUND A BOTTOM?

Goldman Sachs was the big winner for the week, rallying over 3%. The stock appears to have found its footing, up over 16% in July.

I think the trade is long Goldman, says Joe Terranova. Technically it looks like the stock has found its trough.

I feel like Goldman has run too far and I’m waiting for it to come back to $145 before I get in, says Karen Finerman.

I like Goldman as well as the entire bank sector, says Steve Cortes. I also like Jefferies and Morgan Stanley and I’m long those names against the S&P.

4. NEXT ECONO-DATA BOMB

If you think Friday’s GDP means we’re out of the woods think again. Another piece of data is coming that could rock markets.

We’re talking about China PMI due Sunday night

According to Reuters estimates China's official PMI will likely be at a 17-month low as Beijing’s policies to curb lending and rein in the property market weigh on manufacturing.

China July PMI Estimate
Median: 51.1 (Lowest Since Feb. 2009)
Range: 50.0 to 51.7 (11 forecasts)
Previous: 52.1 in June, 53.9 in May
Source: Reuters

The headlines number is expected to be weak, but it’s what lies beneath that matters more.

Investors will be paying particular attention to the new orders and stocks of finished goods. The former slumped in July, while the latter rose, suggesting big inventory accumulation and possibly future cuts in factory production, writes Reuters.

What’s the takeaway?

If the PMI remains above the 50 threshold the declining trend should be largely factored into the market.

However the whisper number is below 50, reveals Guy Adami. If it drops below 50 -- the boom-bust line — it would likely rock markets, given that China could account for a third of global growth this year.

John Stephenson, author of The Little Book Of Commodity Investing doesn't think a number below 50 is in the cards.

"I expect China to come in with a solid PMI number north of 50 for sure," he tells the Fast Money desk. However he concedes if the number is weaker than 50, commodities will take a big hit

But PMI aside, Stephenson is bullish commodities over the long term. However if you're not a professional trader rather that trade contracts, he suggests looking at the following stocks as proxies.

John Stephenson’s Ways To Play
Freeport McMoRan (FCX)
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF)
Alcoa (AA)
Chevron (CVX)
Cenovus Energy (CVE)

5. POPS AND DROPS

Arch Coal (ACI) popped 6%. The company posted boosted its full-year earnings outlook due to increased use of power as the economy recovers from the recession. - I like Peabody better, says Joe Terranova.

BorgWarner (BWA) popped 2% - Demand for the company's environmentally friendly technologies such as turbochargers and dual-clutch transmission technology drove growth at a rate for that exceeded that of the auto industry. - I'm a buyer on a pullback, says Guy Adami.

Teradyne (TER) popped 6%. The maker of semiconductor testing equipment reported a strong quarterly profit of $122 million, or 55 cents a share and said sales increased twofold. - I don't see the smart money buying, says Steve Grasso.

DROPS (stocks that slid lower)

Eastman Kodak (EK) dropped 18%. The company posted a loss that was much bigger than expected, hurt in part by weak demand for film used to make Hollywood movies while its photo processing business suffered from the loss of a key customer. - When a great management team and a mediocre company combine it's the company who's reputation that remains in tact, says Karen Finerman.

Netflix (NFLX) dropped 5%. The company said its earnings were likely to fall sequentially in its current quarter, even though it expected to add 3 million new subscribers by the end of the year. - I think there's some upside from here, says Patty Edwards.

6. WEEK AHEAD: PFIZER, P&G, KRAFT

With a slew of earnings report coming again next week what are the traders watching most closely?

I’ve got my eye on Kraft and I'm optimistic, says Karen Finerman. I’m long and expect to hear good things about the Cadbury acquisition.

I’m watching Pfizer and just established a long position ahead of the numbers, says Joe Terranova. Money managers have been hiding out in Merck but after their poor earnings I think more investors look at Pfizer.

7. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR MONDAYPatty Edwards suggests long PM.

Joe Terranova recommends long TEVA.

Guy Adami prefers long HGSI.

Karen Finerman likes long COV.

Steve Grasso thinks BTU is a buy on a pullback.


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news and events digest

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 30.72 points, or 0.29%, to 10,467.16. The S&P500 finished down 4.60 points, or 0.42%, to 1,101.53. The Nasdaq Composite decreased 12.87 points, or 0.57%, to 2,251.69. On the NYSE, advancers outnumbered declining issues by 1.1 to 1 where consolidated volume came to 5.29 billion shares compared with 4.59 billion shares traded Wednesday. Only basic materials and financials managed a gain despite advances/declines being so even. Speculative issues seemed inclined to outperform along with the commodity sectors, so the market appeared to trying to correct this much of the day. The same goes for oil prices and interest rates and rates finally backed off late in the day.

Since yesterday's close, MetLife posts Q2 earnings of $1.5 billion, beating Street. Amgen profit tops expectations. Sunoco reports profit, tops Wall Street. KLA Tencor revenue nearly doubles. First Solar profit beats, raises forecast. Coinstar revenue misses analysts' mark. Expedia posts higher profit as bookings rise. Synaptics Q4 beats Wall Street, sees strong Q1 rev. Disney sells Miramax for $660mln to investor group. Stanley Black & Decker buys tool maker for $445 mln. United Natural, Whole Foods in asset deal. Google says search, ads in China are blocked and the stock fell 1.7% in afterhours. Oracle sued for alleged fraud on GSA contract. Microsoft talks up tablets, shows off new phones. US junk bond funds report $976 mln inflow-LipperFMI. US Fed's balance sheet shrinks in latest week. Money supply M-1 up $1.1 bln, M-2 up $11.9 bln. All the data out of Japan was weak including July PMI despite Europe's positive preliminary reports. The 10-year yield is down 4 basis points at 2.95%. Gold is -0.60 to $1,170.60/oz. Crude oil is -0.71 to $77.65/brl.

S&P bollinger band levels are 1133, 1079, 1025. S&P 13-wk ma 1098; 39ma 1115. The S&P makes a 2nd lower low after six higher highs. The VIX found resistance at the mid-band. Options show the 10-day average moving below the 20/day call/put. This is generally indicative of soft markets as is our stochastics indicator having moved negative. It's tricky here as seasonality and the 4-month cycle are still positive but relative price seasonality wains. If we could break that 30% downtrend line at 1120, everyone would feel a lot more comfortable as that would also mean we'd be back above the 200-day moving average. The bears are watching the 1090 area to see if the July rally breaks trend.

Futures

(6:00 AM) S&P futures (-5.60 vs Fair Value +1.38). The range is +1 to -7. Weakness began with Japan going down 1.4% from the open to 12:30PM, rebounded nearly half, and then gave back part of that into the close. Singapore dropped 0.7% the first hour and became rangebound the rest of the day. Hong Kong dropped 0.7% from an early high, so that's where London is now and will hopefully follow HK and moved back up 0.5% and finished close to the open. China was a bit weaker than HK after highs in the first hour, falling 1%, and getting half back. India has a 0.2% chop trade going all day that was pretty flat in the morning and then drifted lower in the afternoon but the biggest move was 0.5%. London's high was 15min after the open followed by -0.7% in just over the next hour but has flattened out. Europe has energy shares outpacing but basic materials having given ground, so appears to be in a neutral position now. The 3-day Arms is slightly oversold and the 10-day is even higher and would be oversold if this is a bull market but that hasn't been very helpful since April. Short-term advance/declines are neutral after having become overbought.

US Treasury Market Review

U.S. Treasuries saw the 10-year yield finished up 1 basis point at 2.99%. $27 Billion 7-Years sold at 2.394% with a bid-to-cover of 2.78. Indirect bidders buy 42.3%.

Commodities Review

Crude Oil settled +$1.37 at $78.36/brl. EIA says revised May oil use 18.827mln B/D +3.5% vs. year ago.

GOLD (Dec) settled +$8.80 to $1,171.20/oz.

Reuters/Jefferies CRB Futures Price Index +4.04 to 270.20. To view chart: (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_CR&t=&a=&w=&v=d12).

Guest Post: The Ruling Elite Called.

The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See (8 parts).

Internatinal Review

Tokyo Nikkei 225 (-158.72 / -1.64%)
Hong Kong Hang Seng (-64.01 / -0.30%)
Australia S&P/ASX 200 (-30.60 / -0.68%)
(6:00 AM)
UK FTSE 100 (-19.18 / -0.36%)
France CAC 40 (-17.47 / -0.48%)
Germany DAX (-27.91 / -0.45%)

FOREX

EUR/USD, capped at 1.3095, breaks below 1.3045.
USD/CHF breaks 1.0370, new 6-month low.
USD/JPY: Monthly close below 87.00 would be very negative - Mizuho.
EUR/JPY drops below 113.00, now at the day's low 112.505.
GBP/USD consolidating above 1.5600.
USD/JPY decline extends to 86.25/35 area.
AUD/USD holds around 0.8980 lows.
Japan's Noda: watching forex market closely.

(6:00 AM)

Dollar / Yen (-0.54 to 86.25)
Euro / Dollar (-0.0050 to 1.3028)

Economics

(7/29)
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Remain in the Mid-400K Area.
Kansas City Fed Mftg Survey Improves, Prices Unchanged; Prices Paid are Now Similar to the Overall Index After Being Stronger Beginning in October.
Fed's Fisher says sees US GDP growth under 3% for prolonged period.
U.S. money supply M-1 up $1.1 bln, M-2 up $11.9 bln July 19 wk.



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